Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 9.656977e-05 0.000115 0.000134 0.000156 0.000180 0.000205 0.000235
2024-12-29 7.156102e-05 0.000095 0.000122 0.000154 0.000192 0.000235 0.000285
2025-01-05 5.948906e-05 0.000085 0.000116 0.000155 0.000202 0.000255 0.000320
2025-01-12 4.604477e-05 0.000072 0.000106 0.000149 0.000203 0.000267 0.000347
2025-01-19 4.086611e-05 0.000069 0.000105 0.000154 0.000216 0.000291 0.000385
2025-01-26 3.209682e-05 0.000059 0.000096 0.000148 0.000215 0.000298 0.000405
2025-02-02 2.772925e-05 0.000055 0.000094 0.000149 0.000223 0.000315 0.000436
2025-02-09 2.300594e-05 0.000050 0.000089 0.000148 0.000227 0.000328 0.000460
2025-02-16 2.107326e-05 0.000048 0.000090 0.000153 0.000240 0.000351 0.000500
2025-02-23 1.822827e-05 0.000045 0.000088 0.000154 0.000247 0.000368 0.000529
2025-03-02 1.441126e-05 0.000040 0.000082 0.000149 0.000245 0.000371 0.000543
2025-03-09 1.190232e-05 0.000036 0.000078 0.000147 0.000247 0.000381 0.000565
2025-03-16 9.699953e-06 0.000033 0.000075 0.000147 0.000253 0.000396 0.000594
2025-03-23 8.111230e-06 0.000031 0.000074 0.000148 0.000261 0.000415 0.000630
2025-03-30 6.409272e-06 0.000028 0.000071 0.000147 0.000265 0.000427 0.000656
2025-04-06 4.691581e-06 0.000024 0.000066 0.000143 0.000264 0.000433 0.000675
2025-04-13 4.044550e-06 0.000023 0.000066 0.000146 0.000275 0.000456 0.000715
2025-04-20 2.777291e-06 0.000020 0.000061 0.000141 0.000272 0.000459 0.000729
2025-04-27 2.182274e-06 0.000018 0.000059 0.000142 0.000278 0.000474 0.000760
2025-05-04 1.584316e-06 0.000016 0.000057 0.000141 0.000281 0.000485 0.000785
2025-05-11 1.392219e-06 0.000016 0.000058 0.000146 0.000294 0.000511 0.000830
2025-05-18 1.068103e-06 0.000015 0.000057 0.000147 0.000301 0.000528 0.000863
2025-05-25 6.130147e-07 0.000013 0.000053 0.000141 0.000297 0.000528 0.000874